National Security Ecosystem 2030

Germany faces a wide range of crisis scenarios—from cyberattacks and hybrid threats to large-scale disruptions of critical infrastructure. The key question is how capable the government, the private sector, and society actually are of responding in such situations.

The initial results of the online survey for the study “National Security Ecosystem 2030” provide interesting insights and convey a clear message: The challenge lies not primarily in the lack of individual solutions, but in the coordination of existing capabilities.

The survey initially paints a positive picture: Numerous solutions are already available for communication, situational awareness, crisis management, and digital collaboration. At the same time, participants rate Germany’s overall capacity to act as limited. None of the respondents currently views Germany as fully capable of taking action.

The reason lies less in individual skill gaps than in the failure to integrate existing skills into a functioning overall system. This is particularly evident in one of the study’s key findings: there is often a gap between recognizing a crisis and taking coordinated action.

The study participants describe this phenomenon as a lack of overarching coordination of existing skills. The so-called “linkage gap” between perception, evaluation, decision-making, and action was highlighted as the most important finding of the study to date. The study’s first key finding is therefore: The problem is not the lack of solutions, but rather their lack of integration.

The assessment of the causes is equally clear. The biggest obstacles are not technical in nature. Rather, organizational and structural challenges are cited as the main obstacles. These include a lack of governance structures, complex procurement processes, a lack of coordination between organizations, and inadequate standards for collaboration.

A similar picture emerges when looking at future areas requiring action. Among the most important issues are digital connectivity, interagency cooperation, and the protection of critical infrastructure. At the same time, cross-sectoral dialogue platforms, political prioritization, and greater involvement of societal stakeholders are cited as key success factors. Accordingly, the study’s second key finding is: Organization trumps technology. Resilience arises above all from effective structures, clear responsibilities, and collaboration.

Another key finding concerns the outlook for the year 2030. Many of the solutions available today are considered fundamentally scalable and ready for deployment. At the same time, the study shows that disruptive future technologies have so far played only a minor role in the current solution landscapes. This suggests that the necessary technological foundation for many requirements is already in place.

The real bottleneck, therefore, lies less in a lack of innovation than in the ability to integrate existing solutions quickly, comprehensively, and across organizations. The third key point is thus: The challenge in the coming years lies not in technical feasibility, but in the consistent implementation and integration of existing capabilities.

The study's preliminary findings show that resilience is, above all, a matter of synergy. Germany already possesses numerous technologies, expertise, and building blocks for an effective security and resilience system. The real challenge lies in linking information, processes, and responsibilities so that swift, coordinated action can be taken in crises. The identified “linkage gap” between detection and action highlights precisely this need for action. The study makes it clear that, in the future, resilience must be understood above all as the ability to work together. The capacity to act arises where information, processes, responsibilities, and actors are seamlessly interconnected. The identified chain gap between recognition and action illustrates this need for action particularly vividly.

This raises four key questions for politics, government, and business: How can organizations develop a shared understanding of the situation? How can cooperation be achieved across departmental, agency, and organizational boundaries? What structures can help ensure that decisions are made more quickly and with greater confidence? And how can lessons learned from past crises be systematically applied to future challenges?

The question, therefore, is not so much which specific solutions are still missing, but rather how an effective security ecosystem can be created from existing building blocks.

The current online survey provides an initial interim assessment. In parallel, numerous in-depth interviews were conducted with representatives from government, the business sector, and security organizations. The results of these qualitative studies are currently being analyzed and are intended to supplement and validate the findings obtained so far. The final vision for the national security ecosystem in 2030 will be jointly developed and discussed as the study progresses.